mean temperature
Neural general circulation models optimized to predict satellite-based precipitation observations
Yuval, Janni, Langmore, Ian, Kochkov, Dmitrii, Hoyer, Stephan
Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8$^\circ$ resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. The model demonstrates significant improvements over existing general circulation models, the ERA5 reanalysis, and a global cloud-resolving model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle. Furthermore, it outperforms the mid-range precipitation forecast of the ECMWF ensemble. This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and demonstrates how training on observations can be used to directly improve GCMs.
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.46)
- Energy > Oil & Gas (0.46)
Global Warming In Ghana's Major Cities Based on Statistical Analysis of NASA's POWER Over 3-Decades
Global warming's impact on high temperatures in various parts of the world has raised concerns. This study investigates long-term temperature trends in four major Ghanaian cities representing distinct climatic zones. Using NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data, statistical analyses assess local climate warming and its implications. Linear regression trend analysis and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning predict temperature variations. Land Surface Temperature (LST) profile maps generated from the RSLab platform enhance accuracy. Results reveal local warming trends, particularly in industrialized Accra. Demographic factors aren't significant. XGBoost model's low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) scores demonstrate effectiveness in capturing temperature patterns. Wa unexpectedly has the highest mean temperature. Estimated mean temperatures for mid-2023 are: Accra 27.86{\deg}C, Kumasi 27.15{\deg}C, Kete-Krachi 29.39{\deg}C, and Wa 30.76{\deg}C. These findings improve understanding of local climate warming for policymakers and communities, aiding climate change strategies.
- Africa > Ghana > Greater Accra > Accra (0.48)
- Africa > Ghana > Ashanti > Kumasi (0.28)
- Africa > West Africa (0.04)
- (9 more...)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.68)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (0.48)
- Government > Space Agency (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (1.00)
- Energy > Renewable (1.00)
Thermal Vision for Soil Assessment in a Multipurpose Environmental Chamber under Martian Conditions towards Robot Navigation
Castilla-Arquillo, Raul, Mandow, Anthony, Perez-del-Pulgar, Carlos J., Alvarez-Llamas, Cesar, Vadillo, Jose M., Laserna, Javier
Soil assessment is important for mobile robot planning and navigation on natural and planetary environments. Terramechanic characteristics can be inferred from the thermal behaviour of soils under the influence of sunlight using remote sensors such as Long-Wave Infrared cameras. However, this behaviour is greatly affected by the low atmospheric pressures of planets such as Mars, so practical models are needed to relate robot remote sensing data on Earth to target planetary exploration conditions. This article proposes a general framework based on multipurpose environmental chambers to generate representative diurnal cycle dataset pairs that can be useful to relate the thermal behaviour of a soil on Earth to the corresponding behaviour under planetary pressure conditions using remote sensing. Furthermore, we present an application of the proposed framework to generate datasets using the UMA-Laserlab chamber, which can replicate the atmospheric \ch{CO2} composition of Mars. In particular, we analyze the thermal behaviour of four soil samples of different granularity by comparing replicated Martian surface conditions and their Earth's diurnal cycle equivalent. Results indicate a correlation between granularity and thermal inertia that is consistent with available Mars surface measurements recorded by rovers. The resulting dataset pairs, consisting of representative diurnal cycle thermal images with heater, air, and subsurface temperatures, have been made available for the scientific community.
A locally time-invariant metric for climate model ensemble predictions of extreme risk
Virdee, Mala, Kaiser, Markus, Shuckburgh, Emily, Ek, Carl Henrik, Kazlauskaite, Ieva
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the context of high-impact extreme events. We introduce a locally time-invariant method for evaluating climate model simulations with a focus on assessing the simulation of extremes. We explore the behaviour of the proposed method in predicting extreme heat days in Nairobi and provide comparative results for eight additional cities.
- Africa > Kenya > Nairobi City County > Nairobi (0.26)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.15)
- Asia > Japan > Honshū > Kantō > Tokyo Metropolis Prefecture > Tokyo (0.04)
- (7 more...)
A Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Honey Production with Tree-Based Methods
Brini, Alessio, Giovannini, Elisa, Smaniotto, Elia
The beekeeping sector has undergone considerable production variations over the past years due to adverse weather conditions, occurring more frequently as climate change progresses. These phenomena can be high-impact and cause the environment to be unfavorable to the bees' activity. We disentangle the honey production drivers with tree-based methods and predict honey production variations for hives in Italy, one of the largest honey producers in Europe. The database covers hundreds of beehive data from 2019-2022 gathered with advanced precision beekeeping techniques. We train and interpret the machine learning models making them prescriptive other than just predictive. Superior predictive performances of tree-based methods compared to standard linear techniques allow for better protection of bees' activity and assess potential losses for beekeepers for risk management.
- Europe > Italy (0.25)
- Europe > Portugal > Braga > Braga (0.04)
- North America > United States > New York > New York County > New York City (0.04)
- (11 more...)
- Health & Medicine (1.00)
- Food & Agriculture > Agriculture (1.00)
- Government (0.68)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Ensemble Learning (0.70)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks (0.68)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning > Regression (0.47)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Fuzzy Logic (0.46)
Factors affecting the COVID-19 risk in the US counties: an innovative approach by combining unsupervised and supervised learning
Ziyadidegan, Samira, Razavi, Moein, Pesarakli, Homa, Javid, Amir Hossein, Erraguntla, Madhav
World Health Organization (WHO) reported that 80% of patients experienced these symptoms mildly. However, older people ( 60 years old) and persons with co-morbid diseases are at a higher risk for severe symptoms and death (Velavan & Meyer, 2020; World Health Organization, 2020). Besides, younger patients with no underlying disease might also experience severe symptoms or even death (Jahromi, Avazpour, et al., 2020; The Washington Post, 2020; Yousefzadegan & Rezaei, 2020). The first positive case of COVID-19 in the United States was reported in the state of Washington on January 20, 2020. By March 17, 2020, Covid-19 has spread across all US states (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020; Saad B. Omer et al., 2020). Figure 1 shows the aggregated COVID-19 positive case and death count maps for all US states until November 6, 2020. Reports showed that on November 6, 2020, the top states for positive COVID-19 cases are California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois, while the top 5 states for death cases are New York, Texas, California, New Jersey, and Florida.
- North America > United States > California (0.44)
- North America > United States > Washington (0.24)
- North America > United States > New Jersey (0.24)
- (16 more...)
- Research Report > New Finding (1.00)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (0.94)